这是新加坡南洋理工大学Low教授的文章，在其主页也可以下载
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.r Practical Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis
)dIfr B. K. Low
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$V Associate Professor, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
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lHKf#| Abstract
r -q3+c^+ A practical procedure is described for implementing Spencer’s method of slices with varying side force inclination.
w0j/\XN 2s The search for the noncircular critical slip surface is accomplished using spreadsheet-automated constrained
h#m:Y~GoF optimization. The deterministic formulation is then extended probabilistically to compute the Hasofer-Lind
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#Fl reliability index via constrained optimization of the dispersion hyperellipsoid in the original space of the random
4OOn, 09 variables. Reliability analyses involving spatially correlated normal and lognormal random variables are
pPyvR;NJ illustrated for an embankment on soft ground, with search for the reliability-based noncircular critical slip surface.
b WbXh$ The probabilities of failure and the probability density functions inferred from reliability indices are compared with
LZc$:<J<6 Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that the hitherto complicated problems of locating noncircular critical
w &|R5Q surface and reliability analysis involving implicit functions and correlated nonnormals can be solved with relative
9XoQO 9*Q ease and transparency using cell-object-oriented constrained optimization in the ubiquitous spreadsheet platform.
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